Now I would like to discuss about The Dunning–Kruger Effect: Why the Less You Know, the More You Feel You're Right, this topic teaches me how to keep humble even though I have mastered something what I always did in the past, In fact, there's always something I can't do before I collected some useful information and comprehensive input during learning process.
The Dunning–Kruger effect describes a cognitive pattern in which people with low skill or knowledge in a domain may have difficulty recognizing their own mistakes, so they can become more confident than their actual ability warrants.
But an important correction is needed:
“The less you know, the more you feel you’re right” is an oversimplification.
The effect is not simply “ignorant people are always more confident.” It is mainly about limited knowledge making it harder to accurately evaluate your own performance.
A simple example
Imagine someone who has learned only a few basic facts about psychology.
They might think:
“I really understand about the science of psychology. Most psychological problems are just about mindset.”
Because they don't yet know about differential diagnosis, research methodology, cognitive biases, neurological factors, measurement problems, competing theories, etc., they don't have enough knowledge to see what they're missing.
Someone who studies psychology more deeply may instead say:
“I understand some of this, but there are still several things I'm not sure about.”
Paradoxically, increasing knowledge can initially make you feel less certain, because you become more aware of the complexity.
The basic cycle
Little knowledge → limited ability to detect errors → overconfidence
Then:
More learning → awareness of complexity → more uncertainty
And eventually:
High competence → better calibration → confidence becomes more closely matched to actual ability
A useful distinction is:
Confidence ≠ competence
You can be:
highly confident + highly competent
highly confident + poorly competent
uncertain + highly competent
uncertain + poorly competent
The Dunning–Kruger effect concerns the mismatch between perceived and actual performance, particularly when people have limited competence.
How can you recognize it in yourself?
One of the best safeguards is to replace:
“I know I'm right.”
with:
“What evidence would show that I'm wrong?”
Then ask:
1. What evidence supports my belief?
2. What evidence contradicts it?
3. What am I assuming?
4. What don't I know about this subject?
5. Could someone knowledgeable disagree with me? Why?
6. Can I explain the opposing position accurately?
7. Can I make a prediction and then check whether it actually comes true?
That last one is particularly powerful because it forces confidence to confront reality.
One fascinating consequence
Sometimes, saying:
> “I'm not sure.”
isn't evidence that you know less.
It can actually be evidence that you've developed enough understanding to recognize where your knowledge ends.
That's closely related to the idea:
> The beginning of wisdom is recognizing the limits of your own knowledge.
And there's another important point: the Dunning–Kruger effect doesn't mean that knowledgeable people always lack confidence. Expertise can produce greater confidence when the evidence and experience genuinely justify it. The goal isn't to become permanently doubtful—it is to make confidence proportional to evidence and competence.